Increase in Steel Demand Projected

In its recent update on the Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2023 and 2024, the World Steel Association (worldsteel) projects a 1.8% growth in steel demand this year, totaling 1.81 billion tons, following a contraction of 3.3% in 2022.

Anticipating a further increase, worldsteel estimates a 1.9% growth in steel demand for 2024, reaching 1.85 billion tones.

Chairperson of the worldsteel economics committee, Máximo Vedoya, attributed the impact on steel demand to the prevailing high inflation and interest rates. Since mid-2022, steel-using sectors have experienced a significant slowdown in activities, affecting various regions, notably the European Union (EU) and the US.

Vedoya emphasized the expectation of a gradual steel demand recovery in 2024, particularly in advanced economies, as a consequence of the delayed effects of the tightening monetary policy. He highlighted that emerging economies, especially in Asia, are expected to outpace their developed counterparts, displaying resilience.

Regarding China, worldsteel anticipates stabilization in the property market later this year, leading to slight positive growth in steel demand, attributed to government measures. The outlook for China in 2024 remains uncertain and depends on policy directions to address economic challenges arising from structural transitions.

Vedoya acknowledged uncertainties linked to regional conflicts and unrest, such as those in Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Palestine, and elsewhere, which may contribute to rising oil prices and further geo-economic fragmentation, posing downside risks.

Despite the impact of high interest rates on construction activities, infrastructure investment exhibits positive momentum globally, particularly in advanced economies due to decarbonization efforts, Vedoya added.

While acknowledging the easing of supply chain bottlenecks, worldsteel noted a slowdown in the manufacturing sector under weakening demand, with the consumer durables sector particularly affected.

The association projected a continued recovery in auto production throughout 2023, supported by order backlogs and supply chain improvements. However, a deceleration in the auto sector is expected in 2024.

In terms of steel demand dynamics in emerging and developing economies, excluding China, worldsteel highlighted a divergence, with developing Asia remaining resilient. Steel demand in these economies is expected to grow by 4.1% in 2023 and 4.8% in 2024, rebounding from a 0.6% decline in 2022.

The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war is evident in Egypt's steel demand, suffering from high interest rates, severe currency depreciation, limited foreign currency access, and higher production costs. A slight improvement is anticipated in 2024 as inflation is expected to peak in the second half of this year.